Match Overview

Carlos Prates, known as “The Nightmare”, comes into this bout riding an impressive 11-fight win streak with 21 wins (16 by knockout) and an undefeated 4-0 UFC record. He is a ferocious striker with a 100% takedown accuracy and a knockdown average of 3.54 per 15 minutes. On the other hand, Ian Machado Garry, dubbed “The Future”, enters with a 15-1 record, having faced tough competition in the UFC. Garry boasts a well-rounded skill set with striking precision, strong takedown defense (74%), and diverse finishing abilities.

This welterweight showdown features two dynamic fighters—one a knockout artist with powerful Muay Thai, the other a calculated technician with a sharp fight IQ and versatility.

Keys to Winning

Carlos Prates:

• Utilize early power: Prates has 9 first-round finishes and thrives in explosive starts. An aggressive pace in the opening minutes could overwhelm Garry.
• Maintain pressure: With a knockdown average of 3.54, continuous forward pressure could exploit Garry’s measured style.
• Avoid the ground game: Prates has no submission attempts and low ground accuracy—keeping the fight standing is vital.

Ian Machado Garry:

• Survive the early storm: Garry must weather the initial aggression and drag Prates into deeper rounds, where his cardio and strategy give him the edge.
• Use range and movement: With a higher significant strike defense (52%) and better control from range, Garry can frustrate Prates and rack up points.
• Mix striking with grappling: Though not a takedown-heavy fighter, mixing in grappling can offset Prates’ rhythm and open opportunities.

Game Pick

Prediction: Ian Machado Garry to win by decision

Justification: While Carlos Prates is dangerous early with devastating power, Ian Machado Garry’s calculated, all-around game and ability to neutralize high-pressure strikers give him the edge in a three-round battle. Expect Garry to control the pace, keep his distance, and avoid damage for a strategic win on the judges’ scorecards.